"Nothing Clever To Do"

In my last Blog I talked about finding the “right information.”  I always read the memos from Howard Marks the Chairman of Oaktree Capital.  His latest views are in the link below, but I wanted to highlight one specific paragraph from this piece.

Howard Marks:

“It’s easier to know what to do at the extremes than it is in the middle ground, where I believe we are today.  As I wrote in my book, when there’s nothing clever to do, the mistake lies in trying to be clever.  Today it seems the best we can do is invest prudently in the coming months, avoiding aggressiveness and remembering to apply caution.”

My current view of the market (both equity and fixed income) is largely in line with Marks, but regardless of where you think the market is or where it is heading one of the worst mistakes in investing is “Trying to be Clever when there is nothing clever to do”

Click here to access the full piece:

"A Dozen Things - From Howard Marks"

Read Here

Tuning out the "noise"

Since I left Morgan Stanley, one of the questions I get asked the most is how and where I get my research.  The truth of the matter is that starting my own business doesn't change my resources.  I have access to the same information and research as always. However, now I can express to my clients my honest evaluations of the "noise" out there including what is coming from large Wall Street firms. 

Over the years, I have tuned out the noise and gathered sources of meaningful information to help me with investment direction.  I try to make sure I get my information from unbiased sources whom I have come to respect.

I always take the proprietary research that the large Wall Street firms disseminate with a grain of salt.  I know that the firm has, as all large financial firms do, a bias towards keeping investors bullish about the market.  Recently, Adam Parker the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at a large Wall Street firm released a note with his “teams” view on stocks.

 “Parker’s team sees a bull case of 1,936 for the S&P at year-end, a base case of 1,600 and a bear case of 1,264.”

 In other words, according to one of the most senior strategists on Wall Street the market could go up another 12%, fall 25%... or end up somewhere within this (narrow*) 35% range by the end of the year.

This is a great example of the noise from a large Wall Street Firm.  There is an abundance of information available, some of it more (or less) meaningful than most. 

Moving forward I plan on posting some of the meaningful articles that I come across on the website and on the blog.

*My attempt at Sarcasm