Tuning out the "noise"

Since I left Morgan Stanley, one of the questions I get asked the most is how and where I get my research.  The truth of the matter is that starting my own business doesn't change my resources.  I have access to the same information and research as always. However, now I can express to my clients my honest evaluations of the "noise" out there including what is coming from large Wall Street firms. 

Over the years, I have tuned out the noise and gathered sources of meaningful information to help me with investment direction.  I try to make sure I get my information from unbiased sources whom I have come to respect.

I always take the proprietary research that the large Wall Street firms disseminate with a grain of salt.  I know that the firm has, as all large financial firms do, a bias towards keeping investors bullish about the market.  Recently, Adam Parker the Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at a large Wall Street firm released a note with his “teams” view on stocks.

 “Parker’s team sees a bull case of 1,936 for the S&P at year-end, a base case of 1,600 and a bear case of 1,264.”

 In other words, according to one of the most senior strategists on Wall Street the market could go up another 12%, fall 25%... or end up somewhere within this (narrow*) 35% range by the end of the year.

This is a great example of the noise from a large Wall Street Firm.  There is an abundance of information available, some of it more (or less) meaningful than most. 

Moving forward I plan on posting some of the meaningful articles that I come across on the website and on the blog.

*My attempt at Sarcasm

Feeling Peaceful

Carl Richards from Behavior Gap, does terrific back of the Napkin Illustrations on personal finance.  

Sometimes boiling down the complex to something simple is all we need to do.

My goal is to get my clients to that “Rare" area.

50 Day Moving Average

Investors use two ways to determine the direction of the markets.

From Wikipedia:

1. Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a security in the short run but that the “correct” price will eventually be reached. Profits can be made by purchasing the mispriced security and then waiting for the market to recognize its “mistake” and reprice the security.

2. Technical analysis maintains that all information is reflected already in the stock price. Trends ‘are your friend’ and sentiment changes predate and predict trend changes. Investors’ emotional responses to price movements lead to recognizable price chart patterns. Technical analysis does not care what the ‘value’ of a stock is. Their price predictions are only extrapolations from historical price patterns.

The chart below is of the S&P 500 index for the last 6 months.  The Green line is the 50 Day moving average of the index.  Many analysts who use Technical analysis to follow the market look at this line to determine the trend of the market.  When the index stays above the line the market should continue its positive trend, when it falls below it may signal a deeper correction.

The market has come down to the 50 day moving average 3 times this year including yesterday and each time resumed its upward trend.  

Stay tuned to see if Thursday’s “bounce” off the moving average can hold and the market can continue its upward trend…